NEW JERSEY'S 11TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT — A special election for the U.S. House seat in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District is scheduled for Thursday, the seventh such contest since President Donald Trump began his second term. The district spans the suburbs of Morris and west Essex counties and was previously held by Mikie Sherrill.
In the 2020 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the 11th District by 9 percentage points. In the 2024 presidential election, Democratic candidates in every special House election held during Trump's second term outperformed the Democratic presidential margin for the same district that year.
Six special U.S. House elections have been held so far during the current presidential term. In each of those races, the Democratic candidate's margin exceeded the Democratic margin in the 2024 presidential election for the same district. The smallest such difference was 13 percentage points, while the largest was 25 percentage points. On average, Democratic candidates ran 18 percentage points ahead of their party's 2024 presidential performance in the corresponding districts. One of those six contests, in Utah's 3rd Congressional District, featured a sizable third-party vote.
Special elections generally draw lower voter turnout than general elections. Polling data and precinct-level results indicate that college-educated Democratic voters have participated at higher rates in special elections than other voter groups, while infrequent Republican voters who supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election have turned out at lower rates in those contests.